Comments on: Book: Founders At Work http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/ The Startup That Makes Betas Fri, 15 Apr 2011 00:15:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Book: How To Get Rich  | TheBetaStartup.com :: The Startup That Makes Betas http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-96011 Book: How To Get Rich  | TheBetaStartup.com :: The Startup That Makes Betas Tue, 23 Mar 2010 09:23:18 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-96011 [...] I have talked before about luck here and here. Felix’s favourite [...] [...] I have talked before about luck here and here. Felix’s favourite [...]

]]> By: My daily readings 02/17/2008 « Strange Kite http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95974 My daily readings 02/17/2008 « Strange Kite Sun, 17 Feb 2008 11:40:01 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95974 [...] My daily readings 02/17/2008 Entrepreneur 2 be » Book: Founders At Work [...] [...] My daily readings 02/17/2008 Entrepreneur 2 be » Book: Founders At Work [...]

]]> By: aranazo http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95973 aranazo Fri, 15 Feb 2008 18:15:12 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95973 If the probability of success is 0.1 then the probability of failure is 0.9. Therefore the probability of failing 10 times in a row is 0.9 to the power 10 (0.9^10) which my calculator makes as 0.34867844. Rounded down and expressed as a percentage gives 34%. If you learn from experience even a little (tries aren't independent in mathematical terms) the odds improve greatly but unless you discover the start-up magic formula you never get certain success. I don't argue with the articles point that persistence will likely pay off, that is obviously correct, just that it will inevitably do so because of the odds. Sorry to be pedantic but people still buy lottery tickets so someone has to be a math Nazi. If the probability of success is 0.1 then the probability of failure is 0.9. Therefore the probability of failing 10 times in a row is 0.9 to the power 10 (0.9^10) which my calculator makes as 0.34867844. Rounded down and expressed as a percentage gives 34%. If you learn from experience even a little (tries aren’t independent in mathematical terms) the odds improve greatly but unless you discover the start-up magic formula you never get certain success.

I don’t argue with the articles point that persistence will likely pay off, that is obviously correct, just that it will inevitably do so because of the odds. Sorry to be pedantic but people still buy lottery tickets so someone has to be a math Nazi.

]]> By: Alek http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95972 Alek Thu, 14 Feb 2008 18:59:45 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95972 <p>Aranazo, 34% sounds like an interesting number - I wonder how you got it. If you want to dig into this as a mathematical question, you need to take into account experience. If there are n different mistakes you can make and outside factors that can tank your entrepreneurship effort and if we assume that you don't make the same mistake twice, your chance will increase with every try and after n tries you are certain to have a successful startup (assuming all n reasons can be overcome). So without knowing n you can't put a number to the probability of a successful startup after x efforts.</p> <p>After all, it's just an expression.</p> Aranazo, 34% sounds like an interesting number – I wonder how you got it. If you want to dig into this as a mathematical question, you need to take into account experience. If there are n different mistakes you can make and outside factors that can tank your entrepreneurship effort and if we assume that you don’t make the same mistake twice, your chance will increase with every try and after n tries you are certain to have a successful startup (assuming all n reasons can be overcome). So without knowing n you can’t put a number to the probability of a successful startup after x efforts.

After all, it’s just an expression.

]]> By: aranazo http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95971 aranazo Thu, 14 Feb 2008 18:33:53 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95971 Your maths is way off. I make the probability of not succeeding after 10 independent 10/1 bets about 34%. On the other hand you could get lucky twice. Your maths is way off. I make the probability of not succeeding after 10 independent 10/1 bets about 34%. On the other hand you could get lucky twice.

]]> By: Mike http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95970 Mike Thu, 14 Feb 2008 05:46:43 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95970 Great book -- very motivating! The interview with Max Levchin is especially good. Great book — very motivating!

The interview with Max Levchin is especially good.

]]> By: The Raffy Banks Weblog » Founders At Work, The Bullet Points http://thebetastartup.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/comment-page-1/#comment-95969 The Raffy Banks Weblog » Founders At Work, The Bullet Points Thu, 14 Feb 2008 04:16:05 +0000 http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work/#comment-95969 [...] http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work [...] [...] http://www.entrepreneur2be.com/2008/02/13/book-founders-at-work [...]

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